A listing on a centralised platform like Binance is often seen as a major step in the life of a crypto project. It symbolises both institutional recognition, greater access to liquidity and increased exposure. But what is really happening to the price of tokens after their arrival on this type of platform? Is the impact long-lasting or merely a flash in the pan?
To shed light on this debate, The Big Whale has conducted an empirical study of price trends for 25 tokens listed on Binance between March 2024 and March 2025. This analysis draws on available market data and compares it with the main recent research on the subject.
A growing body of research For several years, numerous publications have attempted to measure the real effects of listings.
A study by CryptoNinjas published in February 2025 shows that, on average, a token listed on Binance experiences an initial rise of 87%. But this figure masks a more mixed reality: 98% of these tokens, as well as 89% of all tokens listed on centralised platforms, see their price fall after they enter the market.
Animoca Research , in 2024, compiled the performance of 773 tokens listed on various platforms. It concluded that post-listing performance was negative overall. Bybit came out worst, with a median of -70.4% and an average of -50.2%. Binance posted a median close to -50% and an average of -27%. OKX seems more resilient, with a median drop of -40.6% and a quarter of its listings remaining profitable.
An earlier analysis, authored by Ren & Heinrich (2023) , covering 26 tokens, noted marked rises for tokens listed on Binance: +41% on the first day, +73% after 30 days. This phenomenon was referred to as the "Binance effect". Messari had observed a similar pattern in 2021, this time dubbed the "Coinbase effect", with an average gain of 91% in the first five days of listing.
These studies highlight a repetitive dynamic: listings often generate sudden movements, but rarely last. They also highlight the significant disparities between platforms, and serve as a reminder that joining a major exchange is not in itself a guarantee of long-term performance.
>> Circle and Coinbase: the secrets of a $172 million-a-year pact
Methodology : A detailed analysis of listings on Binance To conduct this study, The Big Whale selected 25 tokens listed on Binance between March 2024 and March 2025. The analysis covers a period from 30 days before listing (D-30) to 30 days after (D+30), with fixed measurement points at regular intervals: 7 days, 1 day and 4 hours before and after listing.
Several key indicators were calculated:
The average and median price change at each measurement point: H-4, H+4, D-1, D+1, D-7, D+7, D-30 and D+30. The standard deviation, used as a measure of volatility. The proportion of tokens rising or falling at each maturity. This dataset allows short- and medium-term dynamics to be observed while taking into account asymmetries in the distribution of performance, as well as extreme value effects (outliers).
What the data shows: between anticipation and volatility Before listing (D-30 to H-4)
In the 30 days prior to their listing on Binance, the tokens analysed recorded an average variation of -32%, with a constant negative trend at all key observation points (D-30, D-7, D-1, H-4). However, this decline eases as D-Day approaches, which could reflect a slowdown in the sales movement.
The median also remains negative at every interval, ranging from -35% to -18%, suggesting a generalised dynamic across the entire sample, rather than the result of isolated cases. The standard deviation, ranging from 36% to 21%, indicates relative homogeneity in pre-listing price trajectories.
Many factors may explain this behaviour: profit-taking by early investors before a more liquid market launch, a form of strategic wait-and-see, or temporary uncertainty about the real effect of listing on the price.
Just after listing (H+4)
Four hours after entering Binance, the tokens show an average variation of +293%, accompanied by a particularly high standard deviation (919%), a sign of wide dispersion in performance and extreme volatility in the very short term.
But this average conceals another reality: the median at H+4 stands at -1.7%, meaning that more than half the tokens recorded neutral or negative performance. This gap between average and median reflects an asymmetric distribution, pulled upwards by a few exceptional performances.
These results confirm that immediate post-listing behaviour is highly contrasted across tokens. Spectacular rises exist, but remain marginal. Above all, the high volatility observed reflects widespread uncertainty surrounding these market events.
>> Brokers vs Exchanges : Understanding the differences for investing in crypto
Short- and medium-term post-listing trends The data observed after tokens were listed on Binance confirms behaviour marked by volatility and a highly asymmetric distribution of performance.
At H+4, the average variation reached +293%, a figure largely influenced by a few extreme cases, as mentioned above. The median remained negative at -1.7%, with only 40% of tokens showing an increase.
At D+1, the trend reverses slightly: the median is positive (+2.9%) and 52% of tokens are up. Part of the market therefore seems to be benefiting from a rebound in the first 24 hours, although the differences remain marked.
At D+7, the median falls back into the red (-14.6%), while the average remains high (+174%). This difference can be explained by the performance of a few strongly bullish tokens. The proportion of rising tokens fell back to 48%, signalling a return to a more mixed dynamic.
Finally, at D+30, the median continued to fall (-19%) and only 44% of tokens remained above their listing price. This indicates that beyond the short term, a majority of tokens are recording a negative performance, despite a still positive average due to a small number of exceptions.
All in all, the analysis shows that post-listing trajectories are very heterogeneous. While some tokens are experiencing marked increases, these cases remain in the minority. The persistent gap between the average and the median highlights a concentration of good performance in a limited number of projects, while the majority show more moderate or even negative results.
Winners and losers among tokens listed on Binance (March 2024 - March 2025) Among the 25 tokens analysed, some clearly stood out for their trajectory, bucking the general trend.
This is the case for Omni Network (OMNI), listed on 13 April 2024. The token opened at around $1 before briefly soaring as high as $50, according to some sources, to close its first hour of trading just above $31. This represented an increase of more than 3,000% on the opening price.
While a correction followed, OMNI remained at relatively high levels on subsequent days: $24.13 on D+1, $22.99 on D+7, and $15.69 on D+30. A notable performance that illustrates the rare potential of certain tokens to generate significant gains in the very short term.
But these cases remain isolated. Most of the tokens studied experienced a sharp decline after listing. Across Protocol (ACX), listed on 6 December 2024, saw its price rise from $0.35 at D-30 to a peak of $1.23 on the day it was listed, before falling back to $0.60 at D+30. A typical trajectory for a short-term speculative cycle.
Same dynamic for Metis (METIS), which peaked at $138.78 on the day of listing before gradually falling back to $88.76 a month later.
These examples illustrate the diversity of trajectories observed in the sample, between spectacular surges and rapid returns to more modest levels.
>> Read Across Protocol's fundamental analysis
The Big Whale's opinion Listings on Binance are still seen as important milestones for crypto projects. They offer increased visibility, wider access to liquidity and implicit validation by a reference platform. But our analysis shows that these events are far from a guarantee of sustainable performance.
Most tokens experience extreme volatility in the first few hours, followed by a correction or even a downward trend over the following month. While there are a few isolated cases of spectacular price rises, they do not reflect the market as a whole. The gap between average and median is a clear signal: gains are not the norm.
For investors, this means that market events should not be confused with value creation. A listing is not an end in itself, and its significance must be rigorously assessed. At a time when the markets are becoming more professional, only a detailed analysis of fundamentals and good risk management will enable us to anticipate the sector's real winners.
>> The challenges facing Binance post-CZ
